North Korea – Fears still don’t provoke a desire for war

North Korea – Significant fear that nuclear warheads will be used but little desire for military response

A poll out today from Gallup International* reveals that 43% of people surveyed believe that it is likely that North Korea will move forward and use a nuclear weapon, 46% believing they will not.

The poll, representing the opinions of more than 1 billion of the world ‘s population (Australia, Austria, Bulgaria, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Pakistan, Russia, South Korea, UK, USA and Vietnam) reveals on average that one in ten think it ‘very likely’.

Countries where concern is greatest include Pakistan (51%), Germany (48%), Australia (49%), Austria (48%) and the UK and US (both 46%). Interestingly Japan (45%) is significantly more worried than Pyongyang’s neighbor South Korea (35%). The least worried are in Russia (23%) and Bulgaria (36%).

  • In the country that is under the greatest direct risk – South Korea – the overall ratio between likely and unlikely is 1:2 in favor of unlikely.
  • Despite some tense rhetoric in recent weeks our survey reveals that a peaceful diplomatic solution of the North Korea crisis is overwhelmingly preferred over a military solution – on average over 3/4 of those polled favored giving diplomacy more time. A diplomatic solution is almost the unanimous preference for Russians (96%) while Pakistan and Japan both reveal an even split – 51% favouring diplomacy, 49% military. And neighboring South Korea – well one in three (34%) prefer the military option, 66% diplomacy.

Nuclear Weapon Usage by North Korea

“In your opinion how likely is it that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon?

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Diplomatic or Military Solution

“Which of these two options would you support with regards to North Korea and their ongoing nuclear and missile tests:

continue to try to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution or a peaceful diplomatic solution is not working; a military one is needed?”

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Kancho Stoychev, President of the Gallup International Association:

“This snap poll done across the world in only 10 days reflects the opinion of over one billion people and covers the two superpowers US and Russia, the two potentially the most affected countries – South Korea and Japan as well as the two EU heavy weights Germany and France. It’s shows the extent to which people are worried about the nuclear activities of North Korea. Despite these fears, a clear majority prefer a diplomatic and peaceful resolution of the crisis. In Japan public opinion is split between peaceful and non-peaceful approaches which is fully understandable because, together with South Korea, Japan carries the highest risk; the logic being that it is better to solve the problem once and forever.”

Johnny Heald, Research Director at Gallup International Association:

“Despite significant proportions in a majority of those countries surveyed believing that Kim Jong-Un will actually use a nuclear weapon, the majority of people still want to see a diplomatic rather than military response. A military response to a leader with nuclear warheads who has previously

launched intercontinental ballistic missiles is possibly considered to be too risky for many of those surveyed. Yet despite having had rockets flown over their territory it is the Japanese that appear to want a tougher response with 49% favouring a military response”.

 


Methodology

A total of 17,107 persons were interviewed across 14 countries around the globe. In each country a nationally representative sample of adult men and women was interviewed either via telephone (4 countries; n=3,988), online (8 countries; n=9,822), via sms survey (1 country, n=1,797) and f2f (1 country, n=1,500). The fieldwork took place between 20th September and 01st October 2017, the data was weighted accordingly for each country.

Coverage

Country Company Sample size Method
Australia Roy Morgan Research 1,797 Sms
Austria Österreichisches Gallup Institut 1,000 CAWI
Bulgaria Gallup International BG 1,000 CATI
France BVA Group 974 CATI
Germany Österreichisches Gallup Institut 1,947 CAWI
Hong Kong CSG 501 Online
Italy DOXA 1,008 CATI
Japan Nippon Research Center 1,103 Online
Pakistan Gallup Pakistan 1,500 Face-to-face
Russia Romir 1,200 Online
South Korea Gallup Korea 1,006 CATI
UK ORB International 2,041 Online
USA GIA 1,001 Online
Vietnam Indochina Research 1,029 Online

About Gallup International Association

Gallup International was formally founded in May 1947 with 11 pioneering research institutes and Dr George H Gallup as its first President.

For 70 years Gallup International Members have demonstrated their expert ability to conduct multi-country surveys on a comparable basis and deliver the highest quality. Their Members are leading national institutes with a profound local knowledge of research methods and techniques, statistical sources, customs and culture differences of its own country and carefully selected by the Association Board. With only one Member agency per country, Members work together on a daily basis to share knowledge, new research

techniques and tools, as well as to provide the most appropriate solutions to international research projects and service our clients to the best of our abilities.

The accumulated expertise of the Association is formidable – they have internationally renowned experts in public opinion, Third World issues, advertising, and media research as well as in commercial fields such as IT/telecommunications, healthcare, retail, economics, corporate research and so on. Members are at the leading edge of technical and methodological developments, which have impacted on not only the research industry but also the whole commercial world.

Disclaimer:

Gallup International Association or its members are not related to Gallup Inc., headquartered in Washington D.C which is no longer a member of Gallup International Association.

Gallup International Association does not accept responsibility for opinion polling other than its own. We require that our surveys be credited fully as Gallup International (not Gallup or Gallup Poll). For further details see: http://www.gallup-international.com/.