Gallup International’s 41 Annual Global End of Year Survey: Economically More Difficult Year To Come

The World’s first (launched in 1977) and leading Global Barometer on prosperity, hope and happiness, covering this year in a representative way about 2/3 of the global population, done in partnership with WIN, shows:

Economic Pessimism Won at Last

Economic optimism has declined over the last months. The study shows that 28% of the world is now optimistic for the economic outlook in 2018, but the economic pessimism is 2 points higher. Net optimism (the shares of those saying the next year will be one of economic prosperity minus the shares of those who say the next year will be one of economic difficulties) has shown a downward trend from +23 at the end of 2015 and +20 at the end of 2016 to -2 at the end of 2017.

For second successive year European citizens are significantly more worried about their prosperity next year(- 16 net score). The challenges for the very future of the EU project and Europe in general continued in 2017 and it created uncertainties despite Europe’s emerging signs of recovery.For the first time this indicator shows more pessimists for the economic outlook in EU than in Russia, nevertheless that the majority of Russians / 49%, highest in the studied world/ expect stagnation in their country.

The US public opinion is deeply divided on the economic expectations for the new year.

The most pessimistic countries are Italy (net score of -50), Greece (net score of -42). Turkey is close behind them (net score of -40).

Nigeria (+59), followed by Vietnam (+55 net score) are on the other side.

Clear majorities in India and East Asia are expecting even a more prosperous year from the current one based on an impressive performance during 2017, while West Asia is rather worried.

Hope on the planet Earth… but Lower

A bit less than 40% of the surveyed global population feels that 2018 will be better than 2017, which is 13 points down compared to a year ago. 23% expect a worse one. 32% believe 2018 is going to be the same as 2017 and other 6% do not know.

The net score of +16 is twice down than the net score for the last year. Although hope leads ranking for another year, the number of optimists is decreasing throughout the world – as last New Year’s Eve was expected with a majority of 52% of the planet feeling that 2017 will be better than 2016.

A year ago,15% felt that a worse year was on its way, but nowadays their share is 23% thus giving a net score of +16 (39% – 23%). With last year’s +37 the drop is obvious. The decrease reveals concerns and worries as the world is turning into a more hectic and a less predictable place over the last year.

Indonesia (+66 net score) is this year’s winner and South Asia (+51) is the most optimistic region in the world. Europe is on the opposite with 0 score in its non-EU part and only +5 in the EU.

For instance, overall optimism in Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, etc. scores at about +50 net values, however Greece is at -30 and Italy is at -41. Apparently, yet another bad-for-the-west-good-for-the-east year is coming.

Compared to the Russians much more US citizens are optimistic but there are more pessimists in the US than in Russia.

Hope is reserved for the fastest growing countries. Low incomes apparently go well with hope since there are prospects of growth.

Happiness: ALess Happy World in 2017

About two-thirds (59%) of the surveyed world claim they are happy. This is almost 10 points lower than twelve months ago. 2017 was a tough year with terrorist attacks over almost each week and it may have influenced personal lives all around the world.Nevertheless,a majority in all polled countries are happy.

The world today shares +49 net happiness – compared to +59 a year ago. Throughout 55 countries surveyed, 8% said that they were unhappy – almost the same with 9% at the end of 2016 and 10% at the end of 2015.

Latin America seem to be the happiest continent pin the world (net score of +66 in this region).

Fiji is the happiest country. Colombia with a net score of +86 is right after Fiji. Iran and Iraq are at the bottom with +5 and +7.

The net score in the US and Russia concerning happiness is exactly equal(+50).

EMERGENCE OF A GLOBAL SOCIETY IN WHICH NATIONAL VARIATIONS ARE OVERTAKEN BY WORLD-WIDE LIFESTYLE GROUPS

Ijaz Gilani, Gallup Pakistan(Global Barometer project leader):

“The 55 countries show the emergence of a global society in which national borders are being overtaken by world-wide lifestyle segments. Thus, according to the survey, the attitudes of youth across the world are more similar to each other than to the older population within their own national borders. The same is true for survey findings across lifestyles characterized by Incomes and levels of Education.

Net Happiness across the 55 countries polled by survey is 15% point higher among the Young (under 34 years of age) than among the older population (above 55 years of age).

The upscale income groups across these 55 countries are 32% points happier than the bottom twenty percent groups in their societies. The college degree holders are 13% more happy than those whose education is up to primary school or those who are illiterate.

The analysis team of the global survey argues: Happiness depends less on the country in which you live and more on your Age, Income and Education profile or lifestyle.”

Methodology:

The Gallup International End of Year Survey (EoY) is an annual tradition initiated by and designed under the chairmanship of Dr. George Gallup in 1977. It is conducted every year since then. This year it was carried out by the Gallup International Association in partnership with WIN in 55 countries around the world.

Regions coverage:

  • EU Total – combines EU West and EU East
  • EU West – Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland. Italy, Netherland, Spain, Sweden, UK
  • EU East – Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia
  • Non-EU Europe – Albania, Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine
  • Latin America – Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru
  • East Asia – Bangladesh, Fiji, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
  • West Asia – Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey
  • Middle East – Iraq
  • Africa – Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa

USA, India and Russia are not included in any other regional category

Sample Size and Mode of Field Work:

A total of 53769 persons were interviewed globally. In each country a representative sample of around 1000 men and women was interviewed either face to face (23 countries; n=24235), via telephone (13 countries; n=11656) or online (19 countries; n=17878). The field work was conducted during November 2017 – December 2017. The margin of error for the survey is between +3-5% at 95% confidence level.”

HOPE INDEX

As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse or the same as 2017?

Optimists: 39

Pessimists: 23

Neutrals: 32

Global Hope Index 2017: 16

hope pie

Hope Index: Net Score of Optimists over Pessimists

TOP 10 OPTIMISTS TOP 10 PESSIMISTS
Country Net Score Country Net Score
INDONESIA +67 ITALY -41
NIGERIA +64 GREECE -30
FIJI +57 BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA -18
BANGLADESH +51 IRAN -18
INDIA +51 MEXICO -8
VIETNAM +50 PAPUA NEW GUINEA -7
ALBANIA +43 POLAND -5
KOSOVO +40 TURKEY -4
PHILIPPINES +40 REPUBLIC OF KOREA -3
SWEDEN +38 UKRAINE, LATVIA, SOUTH AFRICA 2

Definitions:

Optimists = Better

Pessimists = Worse

Neutrals = The same

HOPE INDEX – BY REGION

As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse or the same as 2017?

Hope by region

Regions coverage:

  • EU Total – combines EU West and EU East
  • EU West – Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland. Italy, Netherland, Spain, Sweden, UK
  • EU East – Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia
  • Non-EU Europe – Albania, Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine
  • Latin America – Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru
  • East Asia – Bangladesh, Fiji, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
  • West Asia – Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey
  • Middle East – Iraq
  • Africa – Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa

USA, India and Russia are not included in any other regional category

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM INDEX

Compared to this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or remain the same for your country?

Optimists: 28

Pessimists: 30

Neutrals: 36

Global Economic Optimism Index 2017: -2

 

Economic pie

 

Economic Optimism Index: Net Score of Optimists over Pessimists

TOP 10 OPTIMISTS TOP 10 PESSIMISTS
Country Net Score Country Net Score
NIGERIA +59 ITALY -50
VIETNAM +55 GREECE -43
INDONESIA +53 TURKEY -40
INDIA +46 IRAN -38
PHILIPPINES +32 UKRAINE -38
ALBANIA +31 UK -36
BANGLADESH +30 SOUTH AFRICA -35
FIJI +27 MEXICO -35
KOSOVO +25 ROMANIA -29
PAKISTAN +20 BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA -27

Definitions:

Optimists = Economic Prosperity

Pessimists = Economic Difficulty

Neutrals = Remain the same

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM INDEX – BY REGION

Compared to this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or remain the same for your country?

Economic by region

Regions coverage:

  • EU Total – combines EU West and EU East
  • EU West – Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland. Italy, Netherland, Spain, Sweden, UK
  • EU East – Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia
  • Non-EU Europe – Albania, Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine
  • Latin America – Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru
  • East Asia – Bangladesh, Fiji, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
  • West Asia – Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey
  • Middle East – Iraq
  • Africa – Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa

USA, India and Russia are not included in any other regional category

HAPPINESS INDEX

In general, do you personally feel very happy, happy, neither happy nor unhappy, unhappy or very unhappy about your life?

Happy: 59

Unhappy: 11

Neutrals: 28

Global Happiness Index 2017: 48

 

happy pie

Happiness Index: Net Score of Happy over Unhappy

TOP 10 HAPPY COUNTRIES TOP 10 UNHAPPY COUNTRIES
Country Net Score Country Net Score
FIJI +92 IRAN +5
COLOMBIA +87 IRAQ +7
PHILIPPINES +84 UKRAINE +8
MEXICO +82 GREECE +21
VIETNAM +77 MOLDOVA +24
KAZAKHSTAN +74 BRAZIL +28
PAPUA NEW GUINEA +74 HONG KONG +29
INDONESIA +68 SOUTH AFRICA +29
INDIA +64 TURKEY +29
ARGENTINA, NETHERLANDS +64 GHANA +30

Definitions:

Happy = Very happy + Happy

Pessimists = Unhappy + Very Unhappy

Neutrals = neither happy nor Unhappy

 

HAPPINESS INDEX – BY REGION

In general, do you personally feel very happy, happy, neither happy nor unhappy, unhappy or very unhappy about your life?

happy by region

Regions coverage:

  • EU Total – combines EU West and EU East
  • EU West – Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland. Italy, Netherland, Spain, Sweden, UK
  • EU East – Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia
  • Non-EU Europe – Albania, Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine
  • Latin America – Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru
  • East Asia – Bangladesh, Fiji, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
  • West Asia – Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey
  • Middle East – Iraq
  • Africa – Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa

USA, India and Russia are not included in any other regional category

HOPE INDEX 2017

As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse or the same as 2017?

(Countries are presented in alphabetical order)

Country Optimists Pessimists Neutrals DK/NA NET

Hope

Row %
AFGHANISTAN 36 30 31 3 +6
ALBANIA 57 14 26 3 +43
ARGENTINA 51 21 22 6 +30
ARMENIA 27 24 43 6 +3
AUSTRALIA 31 39 30 0 -8
AUSTRIA 30 21 44 5 +9
AZERBAIJAN 36 25 19 21 +11
BANGLADESH 68 17 12 3 +51
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA 20 38 41 2 -18
BRAZIL 41 29 27 4 +12
BULGARIA 25 22 35 19 +3
CROATIA 39 23 29 9 +16
COLOMBIA 45 27 25 3 +18
CZECH REPUBLIC 30 23 43 4 +7
ECUADOR 31 16 44 9 +15
ETHIOPIA 57 24 15 5 +33
FIJI 65 8 18 9 +57
FRANCE 26 22 39 12 +4
GERMANY 29 17 50 4 +12
GHANA 50 26 18 6 +24
GREECE 20 50 29 2 -30
HONG KONG 32 22 41 5 +10
INDIA 66 15 17 2 +51
INDONESIA 73 6 12 9 +67
IRAN 25 43 27 6 -18
IRAQ 57 24 16 3 +33
IRELAND 40 16 37 6 +24
ITALY 15 56 26 3 -41
JAPAN 22 12 42 25 +10
KAZAKHSTAN 46 11 36 7 +35
KOSOVO 51 11 34 4 +40
LATVIA 28 26 26 20 +2
MACEDONIA 46 18 31 5 +28
MEXICO 26 34 38 2 -8

HOPE INDEX 2017

As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse or the same as 2017?

(Countries are presented in alphabetical order)

Country Optimists Pessimists Neutrals DK/NA NET

Hope

Row%
MOLDOVA 43 22 31 4 +21
NETHERLANDS 26 18 49 6 +8
NEW ZEALAND 53 21 26 0 +32
NIGERIA 74 10 12 3 +64
PAKISTAN 45 21 31 3 +24
PAPUA NEW GUINEA 31 38 29 2 -7
PERU 41 13 37 10 +28
PHILIPPINES 44 4 48 4 +40
POLAND 25 30 40 5 -5
REPUBLIC OF KOREA 19 22 58 1 -3
ROMANIA 38 35 25 2 +3
RUSSIA 25 17 47 11 +8
SERBIA 34 30 32 4 +4
SLOVENIA 42 11 44 3 +31
SOUTH AFRICA 37 35 20 8 +2
SPAIN 37 21 34 8 +16
SWEDEN 49 11 35 4 +38
THAILAND 30 21 44 6 +9
TURKEY 38 42 16 4 -4
UK 34 27 32 7 +7
UKRAINE 35 33 27 5 +2
USA 45 24 21 11 +21
VIETNAM 58 8 32 2 +50

 

Definitions:

Optimists = Better

Pessimists = Worse

Neutrals = The same

Rounding of Decimals: There may be a slight difference of 1 in some instances. Exact figures are available elsewhere. There is also a slight possibility that the figures vary up to maximum of 1 in different versions of press releases.

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM INDEX 2017

Compared to this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or remain the same for your country?

(Countries are presented in alphabetical order)

Country Optimists Pessimists Neutrals DK/NA NET

Economic Optimism

Row
AFGHANISTAN 31 46 21 2 -15
ALBANIA 48 17 33 2 +31
ARGENTINA 34 24 38 4 +10
ARMENIA 21 35 40 5 -14
AUSTRIA 23 27 42 7 -4
AZERBAIJAN 31 25 23 21 +6
BANGLADESH 53 23 20 3 +30
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA 13 40 45 3 -27
BRAZIL 21 28 48 4 -7
BULGARIA 18 26 38 18 -8
CROATIA 12 38 46 4 -26
COLOMBIA 23 31 44 3 -8
CZECH REPUBLIC 27 22 46 4 +5
ECUADOR 34 27 35 3 +7
ETHIOPIA 37 46 14 3 -9
FIJI 43 16 33 8 +27
FRANCE 14 33 42 10 -19
GERMANY 18 23 54 5 -5
GHANA 40 34 21 5 +6
GREECE 8 51 39 2 -43
HONG KONG 22 33 41 4 -11
INDIA 65 19 15 2 +46
INDONESIA 63 10 16 10 +53
IRAN 12 50 33 4 -38
IRAQ 45 32 20 3 +13
IRELAND 23 25 46 6 -2
ITALY 9 59 30 2 -50
JAPAN 13 17 46 25 -4
KAZAKHSTAN 30 19 42 9 +11
KOSOVO 42 17 36 5 +25
LATVIA 13 34 40 13 -21
MACEDONIA 36 24 34 6 +12
MEXICO 11 46 40 3 -35

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM INDEX 2017

Compared to this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or remain the same for your country?

(Countries are presented in alphabetical order)

Country Optimists Pessimists Neutrals DK/NA NET

Economic Optimism

Row
MOLDOVA 24 24 46 6 0
NETHERLANDS 18 17 54 10 +1
NIGERIA 72 13 13 2 +59
PAKISTAN 46 26 22 6 +20
PAPUA NEW GUINEA 29 33 36 2 -4
PERU 33 17 41 9 +16
PHILIPPINES 42 10 46 2 +32
POLAND 17 38 37 8 -21
REPUBLIC OF KOREA 20 29 49 1 -9
ROMANIA 15 44 40 2 -29
RUSSIA 14 30 49 7 -16
SERBIA 26 41 29 4 -15
SLOVENIA 20 15 61 5 +5
SOUTH AFRICA 21 56 18 5 -35
SPAIN 20 37 38 4 -17
SWEDEN 16 18 62 4 -2
THAILAND 19 27 48 5 -8
TURKEY 18 58 21 2 -40
UK 13 49 30 8 -36
UKRAINE 16 54 25 5 -38
USA 28 31 29 13 -3
VIETNAM 61 6 32 2 +55

Rounding of Decimals: There may be a slight difference of 1 in some instances. Exact figures are available elsewhere. There is also a slight possibility that the figures vary up to maximum of 1 in different versions of press releases.

Definitions:

Optimists = Economic Prosperity

Pessimists = Economic Difficulty

Neutrals = Remain the same

HAPPINESS INDEX

In general, do you personally feel very happy, happy, neither happy nor unhappy, unhappy or very unhappy about your life?

(Countries are presented in alphabetical order)

Country Happy Unhappy Neutrals DK/NA NET

Happiness

Row
AFGHANISTAN 54 11 35 * +43
ALBANIA 60 13 27 * +47
ARGENTINA 72 8 20 1 +64
ARMENIA 61 4 34 1 +57
AUSTRIA 62 8 27 2 +54
AZERBAIJAN 42 7 48 3 +35
BANGLADESH 62 11 26 1 +51
BOSNIA & HERZEGOVINA 59 12 29 1 +47
BRAZIL 53 25 21 1 +28
BULGARIA 45 10 41 5 +35
COLOMBIA 89 2 9 1 +87
CROATIA 56 8 35 1 +48
CZECH REPUBLIC 45 8 45 2 +37
ECUADOR 67 4 27 2 +63
ETHIOPIA 71 11 17 1 +60
FIJI 94 2 4 * +92
FRANCE 50 7 42 1 +43
GERMANY 56 18 26 1 +38
GHANA 55 25 18 2 +30
GREECE 41 20 37 2 +21
HONG KONG 46 17 36 1 +29
INDIA 73 9 18 * +64
INDONESIA 73 5 22 1 +68
IRAN 33 28 39 * +5
IRAQ 34 27 39 0 +7
IRELAND 63 11 25 * +52
ITALY 50 8 41 1 +42
JAPAN 58 4 28 10 +54
KAZAKHSTAN 76 2 19 3 +74
KOSOVO 68 6 26 * +62
LATVIA 44 8 43 6 +36
MACEDONIA 61 7 30 2 +54
MEXICO 84 2 10 3 +82

HAPPINESS INDEX

In general, do you personally feel very happy, happy, neither happy nor unhappy, unhappy or very unhappy about your life?

(Countries are presented in alphabetical order)

Country Happy Unhappy Neutrals DK/NA NET

Happiness

Row
MOLDOVA 44 20 34 1 +24
NETHERLANDS 69 5 25 1 +64
NIGERIA 63 24 12 0 +39
PAKISTAN 65 16 18 1 +49
PAPUA NEW GUINEA 77 3 20 1 +74
PERU 65 4 28 3 +61
PHILIPPINES 86 2 10 1 +84
POLAND 60 8 30 2 +52
REPUBLIC OF KOREA 49 7 44 * +42
ROMANIA 65 18 17 0 +47
RUSSIA 55 5 34 5 +50
SERBIA 54 9 35 2 +45
SLOVENIA 62 6 32 1 +56
SOUTH AFRICA 50 21 28 1 +29
SPAIN 59 8 31 1 +51
SWEDEN 55 9 34 2 +46
THAILAND 56 10 34 1 +46
TURKEY 45 16 40 * +29
UK 58 16 26 * +42
UKRAINE 26 18 47 9 +8
USA 64 14 20 2 +50
VIETNAM 78 1 22 0 +77

Rounding of Decimals: There may be a slight difference of 1 in some instances. Exact figures are available elsewhere. There is also a slight possibility that the figures vary up to maximum of 1 in different versions of press releases.

Definitions:

Happy = Very happy + Happy

Pessimists = Unhappy + Very Unhappy

Neutrals = Neither Happy nor Unhappy


About Gallup International

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For 70 years Gallup International Members have demonstrated their expert ability to conduct multi-country surveys on a comparable basis and deliver the highest quality. Their Members are leading national institutes with a profound local knowledge of research methods and techniques, statistical sources, customs and culture differences of its own country and carefully selected by the Association Board. With only one Member agency per country, Members work together on a daily basis to share knowledge, new research techniques and tools, as well as to provide the most appropriate solutions to international research projects and service our clients to the best of our abilities.

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