Gallup International’s 41 Annual Global End of Year Survey: Economically More Difficult Year To Come

The World’s first (launched in 1977) and leading Global Barometer on prosperity, hope and happiness, covering this year in a representative way about 2/3 of the global population, done in partnership with WIN, shows:

Economic Pessimism Won at Last

Economic optimism has declined over the last months. The study shows that 28% of the world is now optimistic for the economic outlook in 2018, but the economic pessimism is 2 points higher. Net optimism (the shares of those saying the next year will be one of economic prosperity minus the shares of those who say the next year will be one of economic difficulties) has shown a downward trend from +23 at the end of 2015 and +20 at the end of 2016 to -2 at the end of 2017.

For second successive year European citizens are significantly more worried about their prosperity next year(- 16 net score). The challenges for the very future of the EU project and Europe in general continued in 2017 and it created uncertainties despite Europe’s emerging signs of recovery.For the first time this indicator shows more pessimists for the economic outlook in EU than in Russia, nevertheless that the majority of Russians / 49%, highest in the studied world/ expect stagnation in their country.

The US public opinion is deeply divided on the economic expectations for the new year.

The most pessimistic countries are Italy (net score of -50), Greece (net score of -42). Turkey is close behind them (net score of -40).

Nigeria (+59), followed by Vietnam (+55 net score) are on the other side.

Clear majorities in India and East Asia are expecting even a more prosperous year from the current one based on an impressive performance during 2017, while West Asia is rather worried.

Hope on the planet Earth… but Lower

A bit less than 40% of the surveyed global population feels that 2018 will be better than 2017, which is 13 points down compared to a year ago. 23% expect a worse one. 32% believe 2018 is going to be the same as 2017 and other 6% do not know.

The net score of +16 is twice down than the net score for the last year. Although hope leads ranking for another year, the number of optimists is decreasing throughout the world – as last New Year’s Eve was expected with a majority of 52% of the planet feeling that 2017 will be better than 2016.

A year ago,15% felt that a worse year was on its way, but nowadays their share is 23% thus giving a net score of +16 (39% – 23%). With last year’s +37 the drop is obvious. The decrease reveals concerns and worries as the world is turning into a more hectic and a less predictable place over the last year.

Indonesia (+66 net score) is this year’s winner and South Asia (+51) is the most optimistic region in the world. Europe is on the opposite with 0 score in its non-EU part and only +5 in the EU.

For instance, overall optimism in Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, etc. scores at about +50 net values, however Greece is at -30 and Italy is at -41. Apparently, yet another bad-for-the-west-good-for-the-east year is coming.

Compared to the Russians much more US citizens are optimistic but there are more pessimists in the US than in Russia.

Hope is reserved for the fastest growing countries. Low incomes apparently go well with hope since there are prospects of growth.

Happiness: ALess Happy World in 2017

About two-thirds (59%) of the surveyed world claim they are happy. This is almost 10 points lower than twelve months ago. 2017 was a tough year with terrorist attacks over almost each week and it may have influenced personal lives all around the world.Nevertheless,a majority in all polled countries are happy.

The world today shares +49 net happiness – compared to +59 a year ago. Throughout 55 countries surveyed, 8% said that they were unhappy – almost the same with 9% at the end of 2016 and 10% at the end of 2015.

Latin America seem to be the happiest continent pin the world (net score of +66 in this region).

Fiji is the happiest country. Colombia with a net score of +86 is right after Fiji. Iran and Iraq are at the bottom with +5 and +7.

The net score in the US and Russia concerning happiness is exactly equal(+50).

EMERGENCE OF A GLOBAL SOCIETY IN WHICH NATIONAL VARIATIONS ARE OVERTAKEN BY WORLD-WIDE LIFESTYLE GROUPS

Ijaz Gilani, Gallup Pakistan(Global Barometer project leader):

“The 55 countries show the emergence of a global society in which national borders are being overtaken by world-wide lifestyle segments. Thus, according to the survey, the attitudes of youth across the world are more similar to each other than to the older population within their own national borders. The same is true for survey findings across lifestyles characterized by Incomes and levels of Education.

Net Happiness across the 55 countries polled by survey is 15% point higher among the Young (under 34 years of age) than among the older population (above 55 years of age).

The upscale income groups across these 55 countries are 32% points happier than the bottom twenty percent groups in their societies. The college degree holders are 13% more happy than those whose education is up to primary school or those who are illiterate.

The analysis team of the global survey argues: Happiness depends less on the country in which you live and more on your Age, Income and Education profile or lifestyle.”

Methodology:

The Gallup International End of Year Survey (EoY) is an annual tradition initiated by and designed under the chairmanship of Dr. George Gallup in 1977. It is conducted every year since then. This year it was carried out by the Gallup International Association in partnership with WIN in 55 countries around the world.

Regions coverage:

• EU Total – combines EU West and EU East
• EU West – Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland. Italy, Netherland, Spain, Sweden, UK
• EU East – Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia
• Non-EU Europe – Albania, Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine
• Latin America – Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru
• East Asia – Bangladesh, Fiji, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
• West Asia – Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey
• Middle East – Iraq
• Africa – Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa

USA, India and Russia are not included in any other regional category

Sample Size and Mode of Field Work:

A total of 53769 persons were interviewed globally. In each country a representative sample of around 1000 men and women was interviewed either face to face (23 countries; n=24235), via telephone (13 countries; n=11656) or online (19 countries; n=17878). The field work was conducted during November 2017 – December 2017. The margin of error for the survey is between +3-5% at 95% confidence level.”

HOPE INDEX

As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse or the same as 2017?

Optimists: 39

Pessimists: 23

Neutrals: 32

Global Hope Index 2017: 16

Hope Index: Net Score of Optimists over Pessimists

HOPE INDEX – BY REGION

As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse or the same as 2017?

Regions coverage:

• EU Total – combines EU West and EU East
• EU West – Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland. Italy, Netherland, Spain, Sweden, UK
• EU East – Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia
• Non-EU Europe – Albania, Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine
• Latin America – Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru
• East Asia – Bangladesh, Fiji, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
• West Asia – Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey
• Middle East – Iraq
• Africa – Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa

USA, India and Russia are not included in any other regional category

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM INDEX

Compared to this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or remain the same for your country?

Optimists: 28

Pessimists: 30

Neutrals: 36

Global Economic Optimism Index 2017: -2

Economic Optimism Index: Net Score of Optimists over Pessimists

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM INDEX – BY REGION

Compared to this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or remain the same for your country?

Regions coverage:

• EU Total – combines EU West and EU East
• EU West – Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland. Italy, Netherland, Spain, Sweden, UK
• EU East – Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia
• Non-EU Europe – Albania, Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine
• Latin America – Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru
• East Asia – Bangladesh, Fiji, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
• West Asia – Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey
• Middle East – Iraq
• Africa – Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa

USA, India and Russia are not included in any other regional category

HAPPINESS INDEX

In general, do you personally feel very happy, happy, neither happy nor unhappy, unhappy or very unhappy about your life?

Happy: 59

Unhappy: 11

Neutrals: 28

Global Happiness Index 2017: 48

Happiness Index: Net Score of Happy over Unhappy

HAPPINESS INDEX – BY REGION

In general, do you personally feel very happy, happy, neither happy nor unhappy, unhappy or very unhappy about your life?

Regions coverage:

• EU Total – combines EU West and EU East
• EU West – Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland. Italy, Netherland, Spain, Sweden, UK
• EU East – Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia
• Non-EU Europe – Albania, Armenia, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Moldova, Serbia, Ukraine
• Latin America – Argentina, Brazil, Columbia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru
• East Asia – Bangladesh, Fiji, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
• West Asia – Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Turkey
• Middle East – Iraq
• Africa – Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa

USA, India and Russia are not included in any other regional category

HOPE INDEX 2017

As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse or the same as 2017?

(Countries are presented in alphabetical order)

HOPE INDEX 2017

As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2018 will be better, worse or the same as 2017?

(Countries are presented in alphabetical order)

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM INDEX 2017

Compared to this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or remain the same for your country?

(Countries are presented in alphabetical order)

ECONOMIC OPTIMISM INDEX 2017

Compared to this year, in your opinion, will next year be a year of economic prosperity, economic difficulty or remain the same for your country?

(Countries are presented in alphabetical order)

HAPPINESS INDEX

In general, do you personally feel very happy, happy, neither happy nor unhappy, unhappy or very unhappy about your life?

(Countries are presented in alphabetical order)

HAPPINESS INDEX

In general, do you personally feel very happy, happy, neither happy nor unhappy, unhappy or very unhappy about your life?

(Countries are presented in alphabetical order)

About Gallup International

Gallup International Association (GIA)is the leading association in market research and polling and this year celebrates its 70th anniversary.

For 70 years Gallup International Members have demonstrated their expert ability to conduct multi-country surveys on a comparable basis and deliver the highest quality. Their Members are leading national institutes with a profound local knowledge of research methods and techniques, statistical sources, customs and culture differences of its own country and carefully selected by the Association Board. With only one Member agency per country, Members work together on a daily basis to share knowledge, new research techniques and tools, as well as to provide the most appropriate solutions to international research projects and service our clients to the best of our abilities.

For more information:

Kancho Stoychev (in Sofia), +359 88 8611025

Johnny Heald (in London), +44 7973 600308

Ijaz Gilani / in Islamabad/ , +92 300 8544656

For further details see website: www.gallup-international.com