If the elections were today, the formula for the new National Assembly would still be 5+2. Five formations seem confident, and for two the campaign will be decisive for their place around and above the edge for entering. These are the data days before the start of the campaign.
53% are confident that they will vote. 18.3% would rather vote, 6.5% would rather not, and 19.8% say that they would not vote. There is also a small share of respondents (2.45) who find it difficult to answer. More than a tenth of those who say they will surely vote have not yet decided whom for.
8.6% of all those who intend to vote with varying degrees of certainty say that they would abstain from voting because of the coronavirus, and another 16.1% of potential voters find it difficult to answer. The indicators are better than a month ago, but the current growth in the spread of the virus indicates a new possible concern in the coming days and weeks. The electorate of the BSP (Bulgarian Socialist Party) – because of its age – and other opposition formations (because of the lack of a sufficiently solid core) seems more influenced.
In the end, the calculation is difficult, but – if the elections were today – the expected turnout is about 3 million. According to the preliminary voter list, this is about 45% turnout. Of course, there will also be invalid ballots, as well as a minimum percentage of “I do not support anyone”.
GERB (Citizens for European Developmentof Bulgaria) and SDS (United Democratic Forces UDF) are in first place with 27.5% of the hard voters who have decided which of the formations they will vote for, followed by BSP with 23.3%. “Ima takav narod” (“There are such people”) is with 13.2%, and DPS (Movement for Rights and Freedoms MRF) has a similar result – with 12.5%. “Democratic Bulgaria” has 6.5%, the formation around Maya Manolova – with 4.5% and VMRO – with 4.2% are close to each other and close to the edge. The prospects of the last two formations depend entirely on their campaign.
The Volya (Will) -NFSB coalition has 2.6%. With 1.3% is “Vazrazhdane”, with 1% – ABV, with 0.8% is the formation of Tsvetan Tsvetanov, with 0.6% is “Atака”. In all such parties and coalitions, surprises in the end result are not excluded. There are several other formations with tenths of a percent support.
The data is part of the monthly independent research programme. The survey was carried out face-to-face in the period between February 22 and March 1 2021 among 1008 respondents, commisstioned by BNR and BNT. The sample is representative for the Bulgarian population 18+. Absolute maximum error ±3.1% at 50% shares. 1% of the sample equals ~ 52 thousand people.