Institutional trust aftermath at the end of the term and current electoral attitudes

The government ends its mandate with confidence levels of 19% and distrust of 69%. Parliament enjoys 14% confidence and 73% distrust. The two institutions have managed to somehow overcome the damage to their image from the summer and autumn. However, this “catch-up” is not great considering the levels of trust in the cabinet and the National Assembly in the last decade, as we are now witnessing some of the lowest ever. Recent months have shown levels of popularity for the two institutions close to those at the end of ‘Oresharski’s’ term.

The data are from the independent research programme of “Gallup International Balkan”, conducted “face to face” every month. The latest survey was carried out among 1011 adult Bulgarians between the 4th and 12th of February.


During this term, public confidence in the army grew substantially, reaching its highest levels in decades of 54%, with 28% distrust, earlier this year. At the end of this term there is also growth in confidence in the Police. Traditionally, for this institution levels of public trust and distrust are similar – about 40-50%. This is rather good at the background of many other institutions in our country. In the last month the trust there is at 54% and distrust at 36%.

If the elections were today, there are seven formations that would get into the Parliament, and for two of them their campaign will be decisive. There are a few more who will hope to approach or even cross the barrier (especially if it is low, due to the expected lower activity) or to fight for a subsidy. With 25.8% of those who can be expected to vote and have decided for whom, GERB and UDF are in first place, followed by BSP with 21.9%. “There are such people” is with 13.1%, and MRF is close – with 12.4%. “Democratic Bulgaria” is with 6.8%, the formation around Maya Manolova is with 4.7%, and VMRO is with 4.2%. For the last two formations, the campaign will be decisive. The Volya-NFSB coalition can also hope for such chances. The summary result of the explicit mentions of the two parties is a 2.7% of the potential vote, but it is to be seen whether the unification of the two parties will give a bonus, or vice versa. The survey field could not calculate this hypothesis. Vazrazhdane enters the struggle with more than one percent, and formations such as ABV, Ataka and Tsvetan Tsvetanov’s party are also close to about one percent. In all such parties and coalitions, the campaign will be decisive and surprises are not excluded. There are a number of other formations with results of the tenths of a percen


Of course, the data reflects a snapshot of the current climate and is not a prediction of the election result. The most difficult facet to predict will be voter turnout. Figures in mid-February estimate that about 2.9 million people would vote if the election were now. Against the background of the conditional preliminary voter list, this is about 43%. This is less than the activity in the last elections, but again the traditional ambiguity about the voter lists should be evoked.

The data are from the Gallup International Balkan’s monthly “face to face” reseach programme. The last two waves of the survey were between 4th and 12th of February (1011 people) and 7th and 15th of January (1010 people), respectively. The sample is representative of the adult population of the country. The maximum standard deviation is ± 3.1% at 50 per cent shares. 1% of the sample equals about 52 thousand people.



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