Demographic structure of the Vote

Here are some interesting highlights (of course, at this early stage, they are hypotheses), but the data allow for self-reading and conclusions.

GERB and BSP keep their traditional profiles. As usual, the structure of the vote for GERB is close to the generalized structure of the vote in the country, with a weaker representation of the Turkish ethnic group. Still, 13% of those who voted and identify themselves as Turks in our country, voted for GERB. Of course, two-thirds of this group’s vote goes to the MRF.

The BSP remains well represented in senior age group, but the news in these elections is the vote of the young. The first calculations show that it was the elderly who voted to a lesser extent this time. Probably because of the virus, but maybe because of some problems regarding BSP. Another factor is the general politicization of young groups after the summer protests. Among the youngest voters, the winner is ITN (“There is such people”). Its voters come mainly from the previous GERB supporters (Parliamentary elections 2017), as well as from non-voters, mostly young people, as well as those who voted “I do not support anyone”. This is the typical protest vote. A clear protest vote is also visible regarding formations such as the BNO, for example.And where did the electorate of the other protest formation come from – “Rise up! Mafia, out! ”? The most prominent part of it (27% of the its’ vote) are former BSP voters, although they are not the decisive part. Estimates show that the BSP lost about 40,000 potential votes to Maya Manolova. Another 60,000 votes went from the BSP to Slavi’s formation. These are probably votes that the BSP last time received as an “anti-GERB” supplement. As expected, the emergence of ITN further prevented the BSP from focusing anti-GERB sentiment on itself.

The electorate of “Democratic Bulgaria” again remains with the highest educational status and social standard in general. With an average of 43% of people with higher education who took part in the voting, among the electorate of the DB this share is as much as 78%. About 40% of the people who voted this time and supported the “Reformist Bloc” in 2017, now voted for the DB. This was done by nearly two thirds of those who voted last time for “New Republic”, as well as over 70% of those who voted last time for “Yes, Bulgaria”.

How was the United Patriots vote distributed? About 200,000 people expressed their voting right, claiming that in 2017 they voted for the OP. Nearly 30% of them voted for VMRO yesterday. The rest are scattered between different options, the largest of which is “There are such people.”


Table 1 – Structure of groups of voters according to their vote for lists – the sums horizontally do not give 100%, because not all participants are represented.


Table 2 – Structure of the supporters of the main Parties and Coalitions – the sums by verticals give 100%.



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