If the elections for the National Assembly were today, the picture of the voting turnout would probably be as follows:
- GERB – UDF would receive 21.4%
- “We continue the change” – 15.2%
- BSP – 13.4%
- “There is such people” – 12.3%
- Democratic Bulgaria – 12.1%
- MRF – 11.4%
- Rise Up BG! – 4.1%
- “Vazrazhdane” – 3.3%
- VMRO – 2.2%
- Others – 4.6%
The data shows a “pack” of formations after GERB – UDF, some of which compete for the possibility of second place. The assesment of the current stage clearly shows the reflection on the news of the last days – the request of the new formation. At the moment, the inertia of the newcomers challenges the support of well-known parties and creates the most dynamic prospects for “We continue the change”. This may allow this formation to “break away” from the group of “pursuers”.
All this causes a momentary shake in the picture and leads to shifts in the layers, for which it remains to be seen whether they gain durability. That is why, of course, the data is a current snapshot. Furthermore, the upcoming month and a half of the campaign will show what the trends are.
It seems that to the greatest extent the new party addresses an electorate that would otherwise vote for Democratic Bulgaria. Many of the voters who would be or have already been on the periphery of ITN are now also moving towards the new formation. Even supporters of the otherwise solid BSP, and even GERB, are showing interest in the new party.
50.6% say they will vote in the election. 22.6% say they are likely to vote. This means that the interest in the elections is growing. It remains to be seen whether and to what extent the merging of the two types of elections will have an impact, but at the moment a higher turnout can be expected compared to the July 11th elections.
The data is from a telephone survey assesing the current stage conducted between 21st and 26th September among 2,000 adult Bulgarians using a special panel technique that ensures maximum representation. The absolute maximum error is ± 2.4% for 50% shares. 1% of the total sample is about 55 thousand people. The informative survey is part of the Gallup International Balkan research program.