A majority of people around the world expect a troubled, rather than a peaceful new year in 2024. Eight out of ten citizens across all continents fear a potential nuclear war and assess the risk of such as either moderate or high. A majority also expects economic difficulties rather than economic prosperity next year, although we are pst the peak of economic pessimism, with the waning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
These are some of the key findings of End of Year Gallup International Association (GIA) trend survey.
One person in four around the globe expects a more peaceful 2024, but two out of five expect the opposite – a more troubled year. Almost all the rest expect the same as before. Thus, worries definitely prevail. A couple of years ago, for instance, the Global Peace Optimism Index revealed almost equal shares of optimists and pessimists. Now apparently, the wars in Ukraine and Gaza unlocked fears around the globe.
In Ukraine itself 26% expect a more peaceful year, 33% – more troubled and 36% – the same. The rest could not respond. In Russia the shares are 12% more peaceful, 35% more troubled and 29% the same.
The West as a whole seems concerned. In the opposite corner one could find more countries of the Global South and the Far East, with examples like Afghanistan and Indonesia reaching up to 68% shares of positive expectations in terms of peace and war.
Unfortunately, there is no significant drop in nuclear fears for the coming year. Two-fifths of those interviewed now see a high risk of the use of nuclear weapon. Almost an equal share assess a moderate level of risk, and just 14% seeing no risk. The rest could not answer.
As a year ago, a majority in the USA sees the risk as rather moderate. In Russia attitudes are similar to those of last year as well – this time declared shares of moderate risk versus shares of high risk are 40% to 20%.
Two out of every five persons interviewed around the globe expect a better coming year and one of four expects a worse one. Nearly 30% expect the same year as the previous one.
Countries like Germany, USA, Russia show some improvement in expectations in comparison to the end of 2022, although the remain worried. Important actors like Iran, for instance are not pessimistic, India is clearly positive and countries of the Global South, for example, are trending optimistic. Europe – on the contrary – remains not so positive, with the happy exceptions of the Albanian communities. Remarkably Saudi Arabia shows 84% of positive expectations.
Expectations for the economy also reveal sinsn of relief, but at a rather weak level. 39% expect a year of more economic difficulties which is nine points lower than twelve months ago. Expectations for prosperity or at least for no change, on the other hand, indicate some increase, but still negativism clearly prevails.
The countries of EU remains among the more pessimistic places.
Kancho Stoychev, president of GIA:
“The West – Non-West division of the world is deepening more than ever – shows our traditional since 1977 yearly global survey, covering now more than half of the population of the planet. This division is clearly revealed at the level of mass consciousness. People living in the West (EU, USA and Canada) are much less optimistic about 2024, compared to the rest of the world (29% to 42%), much more of them expect economic difficulties (53% to 34%) and a less peaceful new year (56% to 33%). In brief: the wealthy and powerful nations also cry. The crucial question is about the causes – are they from insight or from outside. And most probably the coming year will at least suggest the direction of the answer.”
For more information:
Kancho Stoychev (in Sofia), +359 88 8611025
Johnny Heald (in London), +44 7973 600308
Dr Munqith Dagher (in Baghdad) +962 7 9967 2229
Steven Kang (in Seoul), +82-2-3702-2550
Antonio Asencio Guillen (in Madrid) +34 608191334
For further details see website: www.gallup-international.com
Methodology:
The Gallup International End of Year Survey (EoY) is an annual tradition initiated by and designed under the chairmanship of Dr. George Gallup in 1977. The survey has been conducted every year since then. This year it was carried out in 41 countries around the world.
Sample Size and Mode of Fieldwork:
A total of 40 428 persons were interviewed globally. In each country a representative sample of around 1000 men and women was interviewed during October-December 2023 either face to face, via telephone or online.
The margin of error for the survey is between +3-5% at 95% confidence level.
About Gallup International
Gallup International Association (GIA) is the leading global independent association in market research and polling.
For 75 years Gallup International members have demonstrated their expert ability to conduct multi-country surveys on a comparable basis and deliver the highest quality. Our more than 100 members and partners are leading national institutes with a profound local knowledge of research methods and techniques, statistical sources, customs, and culture differences of its own country and carefully selected by the Association Board. With only one member agency per country, members work together daily to share knowledge, new research techniques and tools, as well as to provide the most appropriate solutions to international research projects and service our clients to the best of our abilities.